Friday, December 26, 2014

Time, Money, and Behavioral Capial: The Conservation of Human Energy

Every profession- and every endeavor for that matter- has its tradeoffs. Within most lines of work, there's the typical tradeoff of money and time. The more time you spend working, the more money you can potentially make.

For newbie traders, there's the misconception that you have the best of both worlds - that you can spend very little time trading and still make tons of money. While this may appear true if you just sit down and take a snapshot of a trader's typical trading day, there's more to it underneath the surface. In science, there's the concept of "conservation of energy." A ball at the top of a mountain, even when at rest, has what's known as "potential energy" - because it has the potential of unleashing its energy if it were to roll down the hill. The universe doesn't just create energy out of thin air - it simply converts from one form to another.

Similar concepts apply to life and careers and success - you can't have it all, so to speak. There are tradeoffs. With trading seemingly taking very little time relative to other professions and yet allowing for high incomes, it seems to violate this principle. But it doesn't. You still have to put time and effort into trading, just not in the conventional and predictable way that high-achieving students might think in terms of putting in work to obtain career results (getting into law or medical school, getting hired by the prestigious investment bank). Let's try to explore this further.

For certain client-facing professions such as retail, medicine, or consulting, there is usually a very tangible relationship between the number of clients you serve (which generally takes more time) and the revenue generated. For others, there may be more of a delayed gratification, but they still see a carrot hanging at the end of the chronological stick. An architect or carpenter might get a bonus, for example, for finishing a given project early (thus requiring more time devoted each day to accomplishing this).

However, there's a third element that isn't so obvious but plays a huge part in one's long-term success, and whose cultivation is largely dependent on less tangible things such as one's intellectual curiosity and behavioral traits - what you might call "Behavioral Capital" or simply "Human Capital."

Insight, imagination, patience, and discipline are several human characteristics that make up Human Capital. They're all traits that can highly influence one's success. However, there's neither a precise way to measure these traits nor a clear way to harness them. Self-help books, courses, and knowing quality people might help, but it still takes a motivated and receptive person to even benefit from these resources as well.

Newbie traders often think about the 'glorious' aspects associated with successful trading without a thought in the world to the tradeoffs involved. With experience, a handful come to realize that it takes time and effort to develop the insights and behavioral traits needed to successfully execute trades day in and day out (or week/month in and week/month out, depending on your timeframe!). The key here is that while the task at hand may seem effortless (essentially pressing a few keystrokes and mouse clicks over the course of a few hours) relative to other professions where you're making visible progress handling cases or producing written or physical work, the true "work" lies in the effort required behind the scenes in actually being able to make successful trading decisions.

I urge every trader out there to not forget that in order for you to reap the rewards that trading affords, you must continue to develop your Human Capital. The moment you start thinking that you're minting money after a series of successful trades and that it's just your natural talent making it happen, you're destined for a downfall. Continue to analyze the world in alternative ways and do enough research to follow through on ideas; continue developing discipline in your actions that can be transferred to trading; continue to do thought experiments on different scenarios; continue to step back before each trade and apply some technical analysis and form an exist strategy that you stick to; continue to go to sleep at a reasonable time so as to maintain your focus and perspectives for the next day; continue to fight greed and simply execute your strategy even if the opportunity in front of you seems like a potential game changer.

The point is, trader development is tantamount to human development. Don't be fooled by shams like the Wolf of Wall Street or fund managers who can't outperform the market and live off of their 2% AUM fee - these aren't real traders. To be part of an elite group that has actually made it in this game requires an elite human being. Arguably, it's perhaps a lot easier to just put in more time and studying in that predictable career than to make it into this club!



No comments:

Post a Comment