Sunday, May 21, 2017

Plan B

It's been a little while since I've commented on how things are going with my trading. Unfortunately, I've deviated from good practices and taken on some uncharacteristically poor short-term, higher risk trades.

Not shockingly, the actual positions I had panned out about very well after I exited. Notably, my puts in FIZZ (company that has been riding the fad in flavored seltzer drinks) and GOOGL both saw tremendous upside after both fizzled out over the last couple of weeks. Even PCLN puts panned out after a lackluster earnings (in spite of having been on a tear for the past few months).

Simple adherence to buying options further out (i.e. w/ a later expiration date) and with less % of my account would have saved me, but it looks like I've reached a point where I'll have to pivot to Plan B.

Plan B has always been to assume less exciting longer-term, low-volatility positions. In fact, I already have such an account where I'm up 3.8% for the year (sure it's single-digits, but much better than a loss!). Note that I didn't say "low-risk," as there is a hidden long-term risk in supposedly safe buy-and-hold strategies.

In parallel, I'm looking to partner with other people in the hopes of creating better outcomes through a better system of checks-and-balances. Left to one's own devices, it's just too easy to get sidetracked, especially when you're not totally dedicated to trading or depend on it for your livelihood. It's too easy to treat it as "play money." But with the right dynamics in play, interesting things might be possible when getting feedback on your actions and being more accountable for outcomes, especially when you've proven to yourself and others that your strategies have an edge. Developing the framework to adhere to them then becomes the primary challenge, and one that I will devote much of my effort toward in the coming years!




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