Saturday, February 10, 2024

Flaking Profits from the Scalp

 In an almost unintended but natural way, my trading has converged to what amounts to focused sessions of scalping. Without going into detail, it's what "works for me" in terms of temperament, lifestyle, etc. 

A couple of years ago, a data-driven analysis of hundreds of my trades led me to the conclusion that my equity curve would look damn well near a textbook 45 degree angle PnL curve, with hardly any noticeable drawdowns, if I simply stuck to a certain strategy that so happened to be more scalping-oriented. It was a lightbulb moment that also revealed that this extreme edge only took place during a certain time of the day on holding periods that lasted less than 5min. I could have dived into this strategy head-first, but I was dismayed by its dependence on certain instruments that weren't as reliable as say futures indices. As an example, one instrument I relied upon was Amazon, but after its stock split, I simply lost my edge after the lower-priced AMZN stock didn't trade quite the same way.

So to make a long story short, in the name of long-term scalability, I pivoted to index and commodity futures, with whom I had very fruitful flings in the past, but without any long-term commitments. However, the new dilemma I'm dealing with is not so much which instruments to stick to, but how to stick to the time periods and scenarios that present me with my proven edge. A nagging feeling of not trading to my full potential always seems to arise outside of my trading hot zones, often leading to drawdowns ("tuition") that make me take two steps back after taking one step forward. 

This is a first world problem if there ever was one (not being satisfied with a known edge); I'm a bit clueless as to where I really stand in the pecking order of trader skills since I trade solo, so I'm always pushing myself, but find new ways of relinquishing profits in the process. It may finally be time to turn into a grown-up, and "settle down" on an edge that is anything but flaky, and finally take me to a place that is self-sustaining and repeatable for as far as the eye can see.

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