Are you on the "edge" of trading well?

As we know, discretionary trading can be thought of a performance sport. Unfortunately, most people are ill prepared in that they don't set up optimal conditions for themselves to execute well, even after developing some sort of edge in strategy. But we can go one step further here. Even after preparing well (e.g., getting sleep, premarket analysis, going through a morning routine to develop the right mindset, etc), what guarantee is there that we will execute well? 

When playing sports, athletes can usually tell if they'll play well by how they're clicking in practice, how they can visualize plays versus their opponents, confidence levels, etc. Interestingly, I've found analogues to trading, and paying attention to these signs of whether you'll execute your edge well can either be a life-saver (by avoiding putting yourself in unnecessarily challenging trading environments) or provide a nice boost to your PnL (by proceeding to trade with confidence). These signs are usually seen in the early innings of live trading (sim doesn't cut it). Something as subtle as seeing your own reaction to a random large move in the market can be an excellent indicator of how you'll trade later. Did you experience FOMO and anxiety, or did you process the move rationally, see it as another piece of market data, and look for follow-up opportunities? If it's the latter, you're suddenly in a powerful zone where you're in control and ready to capture opportunities. If it's the former, you're likely to take follow-up trades that try to compensate for missing the big move, a recipe for disaster. 

There are so many pitfalls to trading execution that really honoring the various signs becomes a huge source of long-term edge in itself. If there are platform issues or non-trading issues plaguing you on a certain day, why allow it to create an outlier negative day? If you see early signs that the market action (whether influenced by algos, retail, a big fund, or a combination of these things) is out of phase with your ability to spot and capture trades, simply sizing down can also save you from a day or week you'd rather forget. One the flip side, if things are clicking unusually well such that even you can't believe trades are panning out in your favor in the way your visualized, there may be something there. Perhaps a large fund is accumulating shares/contracts in anticipation of a big event, and you just happened to spot the fact that there's accumulation every time it hits a certain moving average. These days may not come around very often, so it's worth really doubling down while that alignment is still alive.

Recognizing the ebb and flow of not only market activity, but your ability to capture such activity and then adjusting your trading activity accordingly, can amplify whatever edge you have significantly!